AI Submissions for Mon Nov 02 2026
Fujifilm to boost tape production 5x as AI fuels archiving demand
Submission URL | 331 points | by bookofjoe | 136 comments
Fujifilm is putting roughly 10 billion yen (about $63 million) into a fivefold increase in LTO tape production capacity, measured against fiscal 2025 levels. It calls this its largest investment to date in dedicated LTO facilities.
The money goes to the Odawara site of its Kanagawa Factory and runs fiscal 2026 through 2028. It covers manufacturing expansion and additional staff, mainly to build LTO Ultrium10, the current-generation cartridge. Fujifilm debuted Ultrium10 in 2025 as the first tape to combine barium ferrite with strontium ferrite particles, which it calls "fine hybrid magnetic particles."
Fujifilm's stated reason is generative AI, which it says is driving "exponential growth" in data needs. It says major cloud and data center operators are leaning harder on tape because it stores large volumes cheaply. The second selling point is security: a cartridge can sit in a drawer or vault, physically air-gapped, as a last line of defense against ransomware.
This is Fujifilm's own framing, and the announcement offers no demand figures or customer names to back the AI link. The 5x number is also capacity, not sales. Still, a $63M bet spread over three years is a sign the company expects the archive tier to keep growing, and the LTO consortium's roadmap already projects capacities through Gen 14.
The thread is mostly practitioners trading tape-ops war stories. The central argument is whether tape is reliable in practice or only on paper.
The cautionary camp. The top comment, from someone with long hands-on experience, says never trust the write-time "verified" message. Restore the data for real. They say tapes can pass verification and then fail to read, and drives can even fail to read tapes they wrote themselves. Their rule is to never write just one copy. Their examples:
- A DVD-replication workflow always sent two tapes.
- A facility wrote three tapes at once on different drives: one on site, one at Iron Mountain, one to the client. The local copy was sometimes the unreadable one.
Other advice in the thread:
- Use cleaning cartridges.
- Document which archiver wrote the tape, since tar and GUI tools aren't interchangeable.
- Avoid vendor-specific compression and encryption.
- Keep an index (tar has none at the start of the tape).
- Make sure encrypted data survives mid-stream corruption.
The "never had a problem" camp. One commenter used about 1,000 tapes over 15 years across LTO, DAT, DDS and 9-track with zero failures. They credited a climate-controlled data center (25C, 50% humidity), regular tape rotation and serviced drives, and contrasted it with monthly RAID failures. Another had a litigation-restore workflow that pulled Iron Mountain LTO tapes in batches of 24 and saw no visible failures, though they never reused tapes. Others countered that their own volumes were orders of magnitude larger and showed plenty of errors. Replies suggested the gap comes from scale, environment, media quality and drive maintenance. One person argued that failures scale superlinearly because tape physically moves.
Technical points:
- Read-after-write: A commenter asked why drives don't verify with a trailing read head. Replies pointed out that LTO already does this, with a read element behind each write element that rewrites bad data automatically. Another commenter noted a gap: a misaligned drive can write and read consistently with itself but produce a tape that other drives can't read. That would explain the "verified but unreadable" cases.
- Firmware, not media: One former backup-software developer said unreliability usually came from drive firmware or drivers, not the tape. One drive wrote random runs of zeros after every N megabytes.
- Cloud providers: They spread data across many tapes with erasure coding. Their robotic libraries have built-in verification, and deletion compliance forces them to test reads often. Another commenter noted that crypto-erasure (deleting the key) avoids rewriting tapes at all.
Cost and access:
- One user recommends rustic with S3 Glacier Deep Archive at about $1/TB/month, as a secondary backup. Replies asked how you validate a backup you never restore, and another called that price expensive once you do the math.
- Someone asked why there's no prosumer tape drive. The reply, cut off in the thread, points toward used older-generation drives.
- Iron Mountain came up both as a vault that once "misplaced" tapes and as a vendor people want alternatives to.
- Backup software drew complaints: Symantec Backup Exec was called one of the worst programs a commenter had used, and IBM's archive software was said to be better but still bad.
Launch HN: Momentic (YC W24) – Agents that catch bugs by using your app
Submission URL | 158 points | by wuweiweiwu | 125 comments
Mo, Momentic's exploratory QA agent, found 269 real bugs in a 60-minute run, versus 86 for Codex, 59 for Claude Code and 27 for Devin, on a benchmark of 1,396 human-labeled bugs across Gitea, Metabase, Twenty and Saleor. The benchmark is the company's own, so weigh it accordingly.
The tradeoffs are laid out candidly in the post:
- Recall: Mo 19.3%, Codex 6.2%, Claude Code 4.2%, Devin 1.9%.
- Precision: Codex is slightly ahead at 86% vs. Mo's 84%. Claude Code is at 80%, Devin at 84%.
- Cost per bug: Mo $2.67, Codex $0.80, Claude Code $4.09, Devin $3.89. Codex is more than 3x cheaper per bug if you only want the easy catches.
- Scaling with time: from 30 to 60 minutes Mo went from 177 to 269 bugs (+52%), while Codex gained 16%.
Mo is a custom harness, not a wrapper around Playwright scripts. It builds a DAG as it explores and forks large product areas into parallel sub-agents, each with its own browser or device. Planner agents reason over screenshots and video, and separate locator agents resolve plain-English targets. Parallel agents avoid stepping on each other through cooperative resource leases: many "using" claims can coexist, but only one "modifying" claim per resource. A tunnel exposes private or local apps to the hosted agents, and a single bug bash can spin up hundreds of concurrent browsers and devices.
The founders' thesis is that scripted E2E tests (hardcoded XPath, text, aria attributes) are the wrong primitive once coding agents write most of the code, and that LLMs checking their own work reinforce their own assumptions. They cite DeepSWE v1.1, where a model scored 66.2% when banned from writing tests versus 65.3% when allowed.
The classic product is still there too. Tests are plain-English YAML kept in your repo, with a CLI whose exit code can gate CI, auto-heal that proposes reviewable test diffs, AI failure triage, and MCP hooks so a coding agent can author and verify tests. The site claims 117,010 bugs caught and 70.6M test runs. Targets are web, iOS and Android, with desktop coming.
Newly shipped is PR testing for Vercel and Cloudflare deploy previews. New signups get $250 in Mo spend. The dataset and harness are public on Hugging Face and GitHub, so the numbers can be checked. Caveat: the judge was an LLM (with a human reviewer), and even Mo's best run recalled under a fifth of the labeled bugs.
The thread is a Launch HN-style Q&A with the Momentic engineers (Gabe, Henry) answering skeptics. The recurring question is why a paid harness beats a DIY agent setup, and the answers are mostly "recall, and tooling built over two years."
"Why not just run Claude Code/Opus with Playwright?" This was the most direct challenge. Gabe's answer was that Mo finds roughly 5x as many bugs as Claude Code at about 35% less per bug over 60 minutes. Commenters pushed on the baseline:
- rheisen_ called stock Claude Code "the lowest of bars." Gabe conceded stock CC was weak and said they also ran CC and Codex with agent-browser and Playwright MCP, are now running browser-use, and host results at their qa-bench page.
- rheisen_ said all of these are naive. They script deterministic screenshot and app-state pipelines and run them through a cheap model with questionnaires, escalating to stronger models rarely. Henry replied that this resembles Momentic's existing "AI check" for known flows, and that Mo adds discovery of unscripted flows. It will eventually propose durable tests, which would cut cost.
- On the bitter lesson (what if models keep improving?), Gabe said the harness and e2e tests complement frontier models, and that better models mainly improve efficiency and reduce repeated exploration.
What counts as a useful result. Several commenters questioned whether raw bug count is the right metric:
- haukebri, who drives browsers professionally, said trust in a red result matters more than volume. Agent-written assertions drift toward stable but meaningless checks like copy or element existence, and one noisy finding per run makes people stop reading reports. They score tools by planting known defects in a staging copy, running 5-6 times, and counting false alarms per run. They asked how Mo dedupes the same defect found via different flows and whether a false-alarm-per-run figure exists. There was no answer in the thread.
- StilesCrisis said that in many codebases "fix every bug" is infeasible and finding serious bugs is the goal. Henry agreed, pointing to the benchmark's severity-weighted score and saying annotating every bug is nearly impossible. He said a v2 benchmark could improve on this.
- ryanschaffersoc raised a different gap: verifying the app matches the original requirements and acceptance criteria, since agents quietly simplify specs. This went unanswered in the thread beyond a reference to Mo's spec and PR-review modes.
Benchmark credibility and competition.
- pranshuchittora (Vostride, which makes the open-source agent-qa) argued that self-made benchmarks aren't enough and asked for neutral ones. Henry welcomed running public benchmarks, but countered that Vostride's product depends on pre-written test cases and is closer to Momentic's regression tests than to Mo.
- beavisringdin said they'd prefer open source they can attach to their own harness, and asked what Momentic had done for two years. Henry said Mo is the second product, built on the e2e framework and tuning from those years. Real-device support is due in a couple of weeks, which beavisringdin said would be the real draw, especially for Expo/React Native.
- embedding-shape asked how plain-English tests differ from Cucumber/Gherkin, which promised the same thing and fizzled. No answer is visible.
- khasan222 said Playwright aria snapshots work better than screenshots for them, and asked whether Mo uses them for exploration.
Messaging confusion. podoman and bigmadshoe found the writeup's cost-versus-recall framing confusing. Mo costs more per bug than Codex but less than Claude Code and Devin. Henry restated that the pitch is 3x more correct bugs than the next-best agent, paid for with higher cost. mlcruz suggested the writeup better explain why recall matters; Henry said they'd revise it.
Astra can read and write weights to improve Qwen
Submission URL | 2917 points | by dbreunig | 879 comments
An LLM edited 0.016% of Qwen3.5-0.8B's weights directly, with no gradients and no training loop, and MATH-500 went from 7.9% to 48.1%. The MIT CSAIL authors (Takehi, Teoh, Zhang, Khattab) call this "Weight-Space Programming." Their model, GPT-6 Astra, reads raw weights, diagnoses a problem, and rewrites the parameters itself.
In the Qwen case, Astra found a weight issue behind the reasoning loops that Qwen's own model card warns about, and fixed it in a Python kernel. Sampling settings stayed the same. The edit also carried over to instruction following, where IFEval rose 3x. Both numbers come from a single 0.8B model, and the post presents them as "very early results."
The smaller experiments are where the claim gets tested more directly:
- Reading: given 17,253 raw weights and no list of candidate games, Astra named the right game for all four PPO-trained networks (Breakout at 99% confidence). The networks shared input channels, action sets, and dimensions, so only the weights could give the answer away. Other experiments ask what a diffusion model draws, which language a small LM was trained on, and which of two LMs was trained to be sycophantic.
- Fixing: a control policy that never got the car over the strip went from 0% to 100% success after Astra edited 3.5% of its weights in one shot.
- Writing: with no environment feedback, Astra wrote small MinAtar game-playing networks from scratch that beat PPO baselines trained for 100M steps. There is also a Go experiment, though the excerpt cuts off before its results.
The authors' broader pitch is that LLM-driven optimization, already used for prompts, harnesses, and training code, now reaches differentiable weights too. They argue it could eventually displace hand-built optimizers like Adam and Muon, and that it could matter for interpretability.
The excerpt doesn't show how robust the edits are across other models, or how much of Astra's success depends on model-card hints like the reasoning-loop warning. A jump from 7.9% to 48.1% on MATH-500 suggests the base model was badly broken at those sampling settings, so the result may reflect repairing a defect more than adding capability.
The thread splits between a skeptic with domain expertise and people who say the skeptic is missing what is notable. The skeptical side got the most support.
The deflationary case (yurimo, stymaar, others):
- yurimo works in weight-space learning and says the blog post overstates the results. Weight editing and weight identification already exist, with ROME (2023) as the example.
- Many experiments use tiny models of around 20K parameters, where editing by hand is feasible. The Qwen fix looks like a steering vector. The one attempt to improve math capability reportedly didn't work.
- stymaar says Astra does what a competent ML practitioner would do: read the interpretable parts, or use directional ablation, the same technique used to decensor models.
- YeGoblynQueenne adds that the Gemma 3 270M experiment failed because that model doesn't loop. In their view that is direct evidence a model can't weight-train new capabilities into another model, so the work is not recursive self-improvement (RSI).
- yurimo's reading is that this mostly shows OpenAI trained on mechinterp environments, maybe even on open weight-space datasets. They also doubt naive edits will scale to large overparametrized models. They point to current auto-interp work, which gives models better tools to understand parameter geometry instead of editing blindly.
- chemicalnovae answered pyrale's MoE question by pointing out that even the active experts are far larger than the 20K toy.
The pushback:
- youareundersell says the point is that an LLM reasons over a raw dump of opaque weights and hand-wires changes quickly. They clarified that "alien" means beyond human speed and volume, not magic, and they compared it to computers doing arithmetic.
- red75prime says skepticism can overshoot into dismissiveness. A model that has internalized mechinterp research is expected, just as internalizing math research was.
- 10xDev says what matters is scalability and autonomy, and that this could matter for continual learning.
- kenjackson sees the paper as an opening salvo, not a statement of its limits. They also doubt the Schmidhuber comparison fits.
Other threads:
- Why it got upvoted: bottlepalm and hollowonepl say people are reacting to the idea that this is possible at all. chrsw suspects some of the votes come from anxiety about closed Western labs pulling ahead.
- Possible leakage: pyrale wonders whether Astra's skill comes from internal use at OpenAI. If so, asking it to edit your model might be a cheap way to extract that knowledge, like distillation.
- Tooling: hashmap argues the real gap is legible, interactive editing tools for humans, since even the best models are still unreliable at discernment.
- Hype correction: pera linked a separate submission that visualizes the examples. stymaar and frays said it was better than the paper's coverage, and frays said they would now share that instead.
- Self-improvement: yurimo's research pursues weight-space edits as a path to self-improvement and points to hypernetworks (Google Brain, 2016) as prior art. TonyStr asked whether superposition is what makes models rigid, but the comment is cut off.
The unresolved crux is scale. It is unclear whether the "edit weights by reasoning" approach survives beyond tiny or defect-specific cases.
LLMs are not superhuman at reading and writing neural network weights
Submission URL | 136 points | by agrm | 22 comments
Sean Goedecke's thesis: the "superhuman weight editing" results are things a competent ML researcher would do with a few lines of Python. He's responding to a paper claiming GPT-6 Astra can read and edit small networks' weights "well past what we'd expect from humans or conventional algorithms," a capability some read as a step toward recursive self-improvement.
His two main rebuttals:
- Game identification is trivial. The ~17k-weight toy RL networks have input channels labeled ("agent", "moving objects") and wired directly to 8x8 grid cells. Taking the L2 norm of each input across the first layer's 32 weights gives a heatmap in three lines of NumPy. You'd spot Breakout (player in a horizontal line at the bottom) or Pac-Man (the maze) on sight. The neat part is that Astra did the norms in its head without running code, but he calls that superhuman mental arithmetic, not superhuman AI research.
- The Qwen math fix is a standard steering recipe. The 0.8B model wasn't bad at math. It looped after 32k tokens, so any problem needing more than that failed, while everything under 32k already passed. Astra wrote four pairs of looping and non-looping texts, measured which weights contributed to the difference, trimmed the top ones, and tested until the loops stopped. Goedecke says that is essentially the Heretic abliteration playbook, and it's what he'd have done himself. Unlike with the game networks, Astra had Python access here.
His analogy: direct weight editing is like an LLM emitting machine code or patching compiled binaries. It's a neat trick, but the best way to work with binaries is still to write source and compile, and the best way to update a model is still to train it. If LLMs speed up AI research, he expects it to come through better training, not hand-tweaked weights.
He also skips the paper's hand-written neural network from scratch, arguing that anything expressible as a simple program is already known to be expressible as a network. In an edit he answers HN commenters: one found the heatmaps less obvious than he did, which he chalks up to unfamiliarity with toy RL game setups. He stresses he's still very impressed, just not updated beyond "these models can solve Navier-Stokes and find better bounds on the Riemann Conjecture."
The argument is strongest on the game task. On the Qwen fix, it shows the method was conventional, but it doesn't address whether the model chose that method on its own, which is arguably the paper's point.
The thread's main fight is over whether "superhuman" is a fair label or just a framing the original paper invited.
"Faster, not stranger." nfw2 and simias argue the capability is the calculator kind. Astra reasons in legible steps and does what a reverse engineer would do: spot traits, guess function, extend the guess. The "LLMs natively understand their weights" reaction struck simias as wild because nothing trains models to do that, and the details show it isn't what happened. antonvs counters that speed and scale are themselves superhuman and can become qualitative. His example is an LLM absorbing a new codebase in minutes versus a human's months, which he puts at roughly 10,000x, and at some point "it starts to seem" like Matrix-style communion.
Goalpost-moving vs. deflating hype. lnenad says the skeptics keep shifting the bar and that being impressed should be allowed. aesthesia replies that this is pushback on a misreading the authors encouraged, and quotes the original HN thread to show it. Those comments included "recursive self-improvement," "the first concrete sign that the world is about to end," and "no human can go edit a brain." lnenad says he could quote reactions in the opposite spirit and that the model really did edit weights directly with no tools. kenjackson asks for a real human to take on experiments 4 and 5, including the single-try, no-tools condition, and guesses that only a savant could manage it. That is a challenge to the "a competent researcher could do this" claim.
Is the heatmap really obvious? Several people dispute the post's claim that the first three games are identifiable on sight.
- StilesCrisis and kenjackson say they couldn't name Pac-Man, or any of the games, without a list of options. kenjackson checked the prompt and found no choices were given, only "the game, as specifically as you can."
- bradenlc found Pac-Man the easiest, and pera suggests why. Berkeley's CS 188 uses Pac-Man with variable grid sizes to teach Q-learning, so people who know that setup would recognize the layout.
- StilesCrisis notes that Astra would certainly have seen that material, whereas he hadn't.
Smaller points
- solyin links the post's binaries analogy to open weights versus open source.
- nagi_builds asks how long a human would need, and simias treats that as beside the point.
Scaling Git at OpenAI
Submission URL | 261 points | by makeramen | 178 comments
OpenAI has published a post on how it scales Git internally, but the article body didn't come through, so the details (repo size, tooling, whether it's monorepo work, what was built or patched) aren't available here.
The title alone says only that Git, not a proprietary VCS, is under strain at OpenAI and that the company thinks the fix is worth writing up. Anything beyond that would be a guess. Check the original post for specifics.
The thread barely discusses the post itself. It treats it as the latest entry in a wave of "Git at agent scale" write-ups and argues over why that wave exists.
Is this new, and is it Git at all? The commenter who started the thread counted five similar articles from Cursor, GitHub (two), Anthropic and East River Source Control. Others added GitLab and Entire, putting the count at seven or more, and wondered how much the teams are cross-pollinating. Skeptics said the concepts have existed at Meta and Google for a decade or two. One reply noted Anthropic's piece is about ditching Git for a new VCS, not tuning it. Commenters then disputed Anthropic's claim to have outgrown Meta and Google:
- One ex-Meta commenter said 30,000 commits a day was routine there six years ago.
- Others replied that commit size matters as much as count, and one added that files changed per commit drives
git pushnegotiation cost. - Another commenter insisted modern agent-driven output dwarfs anything from the early 2010s and guessed OpenAI might be committing over a billion lines a day, with no evidence offered.
What is all that code for? The most skeptical thread asked what justifies this volume, given that the products don't seem to change much. One commenter said the sheer scale, apparently petabytes of commits, looks like agents "flipping the same number in a spreadsheet." The reply was that they have an unlimited token budget. Another user described agent output as code that works but is badly architected: bolting an adapter onto old code to fake new semantics instead of restructuring it. They suggested this could produce exponentially growing mess. Others countered that this is where human judgment still matters, though one worried that people increasingly don't read the code at all.
Is Git becoming a protocol? One commenter argued that if nobody reads, shares or accepts patches for agent code, Git's collaboration purpose is moot. Yet low-level storage still needs to be simple, reliable and shared, so Git may become a protocol and no single product will cover every case. A reply pushed back that agents benefit from history tracking and visible merge conflicts just as humans do.
Side threads:
- Claude reportedly got about 3x faster by gzipping conversation payloads, which drew jokes about zstd, brotli and why this wasn't done earlier.
- A tax-code analogy about zero-cost output went in circles over whether extra complexity is a benefit.
- Several users complained that the ChatGPT desktop app lags badly. Suggested causes were many saved chats, Windows-specific problems, and breakage after sleep on Linux.
- A gym-app tangent turned into an argument over whether fitness tracking needs software.
The SEC Should Block Anthropic's IPO to Protect the Public
Submission URL | 394 points | by cdrnsf | 312 comments
Anthropic's footnotes show roughly $895 billion in spending commitments against $96 billion in cash, and author Matt Scherer argues that gap is why the SEC should halt the IPO. His case is advocacy from a co-author of an Open Markets Institute / Americans for Financial Reform report on the AI bubble bursting, not neutral analysis.
The core claim is that off-balance-sheet obligations are debts in everything but accounting. At least $582 billion is non-cancelable compute spending with Amazon, AMD, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft. The remaining ~$300 billion is unclear in how it will land, and Scherer expects the total to pass $1 trillion by year-end as new contracts are negotiated. Most of it runs into the 2030s.
He also flags that 2026 results are unaudited, and that third-quarter figures suggest revenue growth "slowed to a crawl" over the summer. Meeting the commitments would require sustaining extraordinary growth.
He lists four forces squeezing margins:
- Demand: one study he cites found US workplace AI use fell from 46% (summer 2025) to 33% (summer 2026), and the Fable 5 model reportedly got a tepid commercial reception.
- Commoditization: competition from Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and SpaceX limits price increases.
- Costs: price cuts risk burning cash.
- External constraints: supply-chain problems and community opposition raise costs and delay revenue.
The stake he names is who holds the bag: retail investors, workers, and retirees if the company lists in November and the bills come due.
The excerpt cuts off before any legal argument for why the SEC has authority to block the offering. Disclosure regimes typically police what companies say, not whether the business is wise, so that's the weak link in the headline ask. The piece reads as a risk-factor argument for investors more than a regulatory roadmap.
The thread splits over what the SEC is for, then wanders into whether anyone should expect a bailout. Almost nobody defends the headline ask directly.
Disclosure regulator vs. gatekeeper. The top comment (marsten) says the SEC's job is to ensure visibility and then get out of the way. Giving politicians veto power over who can IPO invites corruption. fpoling replies that the article only asks for a delay until two quarters of audited financials exist, since otherwise investors lack the information to choose rationally. Several commenters answered that an investor who finds the information thin can simply stay out or wait two quarters after listing (roenxi, ExoticPearTree). roenxi also called it a highly speculative company that lost $42B last year, and said it could still be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Whether small-stake "vibes" investing is irrational. skissane plans to put 1–2% of a portfolio into the IPO on vibes, arguing that a capped downside makes this reasonable.
- vanviegen and Frieren said that is by definition not reason-based, and that if enough people do it the market breaks.
- fpoling said it is irrational if a crash correlates with the rest of your stocks, and that portfolio insurance is a better use of the 1–2%.
- skissane countered with practical vs. theoretical rationality, citing Buridan's ass. He also said a small "fun" position beside index funds is not irrational, and mentioned a $350 microcap bought because his dad once worked there.
Who the warning is really for. sumo89 argued the target isn't hobbyists but pension funds, whose failure drags down the economy. Grombobulous replied that pension funds have expert staff and don't need IPOs to invest. watwut raised a sharper structural point: a high valuation could force the stock into index funds, making exposure effectively mandatory for passive holders. If the bubble pops after that, early backers cash out and everyone else eats the losses.
Bailouts. Waterluvian argued that if government shouldn't intervene at the start, it shouldn't at the end, and whimsicalism agreed. miki123211 said nobody would bail out Anthropic or Nvidia, but might bail out a pension-holder that over-invested in them. etempleton saw no reason to bail out either, since the US has the leading GPU and AI companies and a forced asset sale would do. mapme defended 2008 bailouts as high-ROI. dathery countered that the expectation of bailouts creates moral hazard, citing the FCIC. sbuttgereit and pjc50 then traded analogies about morality and pensions, and AnthonyMouse and sumedh argued over whether 2008 was caused by deregulation or by housing policy.
Tech debt as the hidden liability. conartist6 argued Anthropic's real off-balance-sheet debt is software quality debt, which it takes on itself and encourages in customers. jdlshore said Claude Code reportedly carries enormous technical debt, but Anthropic is speed-running it with AI help, so whether it bites is unknown.
Ponector added that IPOs reward early insiders, not ordinary buyers, and expects Uber-like post-IPO dynamics.
LongCat-2.5: Native Multimodality for Agentic Tasks
Submission URL | 85 points | by pretext | 26 comments
LongCat-2.5 is pitched as a natively multimodal model built for agentic tasks. "Native" implies vision and other modalities are trained into the model from the start, not bolted on through a separate adapter. The blog post is the only source here, and its body didn't load, so I can't confirm any of that.
That means no verified details on parameter count, benchmark scores, license, weights availability, or pricing. Those are the specifics that would show whether it competes with the established multimodal agent models or is just another version bump. Check the linked post before drawing conclusions.
The thread splits into two arguments: whether the benchmark comparisons are honest, and whether the model's real-world behavior matches its charts.
The "obsolete comparisons" fight. BugsJustFindMe opened by objecting that the post benchmarks against older models (GPT-5.5, Opus 4.8 and 5) without saying why, which reads as hiding something. Replies defended it from several angles:
- imjonse and Catloafdev: comparing against models in its own class says more than "X% below the current top."
- Saline9515: it's far cheaper than frontier models, so a like-for-like comparison isn't the point.
- james2doyle: the preview shipped back in September, so the comparison may have been current then. BugsJustFindMe countered that the post went up yesterday, so they had time to update.
- lumost: it isn't really a "local" model, and the comparison that's missing is Kimi K3.1, its actual peer.
Incipient's retort was that it's better to have people suspect your model is weaker than to prove it.
Local vs. API. BugsJustFindMe pointed out that a 1.6T-parameter model won't run at home. Imustaskforhelp replied that open weights still matter even if only theoretically self-hostable. colingauvin said the API pricing and benchmarks look competitive, but for home use DS4.1 is roughly equivalent at half the total parameters and under half the active ones. esafak noted the price matches DS4.1F, with cache hit rate and speed as the unknowns. InsideOutSanta measured fast output at first, filling 200k tokens in 5 minutes, then a more modest ~80 tps on a second run.
Hands-on reports are unflattering.
- springtimesun: after two English turns, it mixed Chinese into its thinking, answered in Chinese, then crashed.
- embedding-shape: the chat link redirects to a Meituan login page, and the GitHub and Hugging Face links promise "soon" with no explanation of whether weights will be released. Simple prompts seemed dumb, so they suspect it's "benchmaxxed" and rushed out.
- vfosnar: the Firefox input box reset the cursor after every keystroke, and "Hello" triggered 25 web searches. They suspect the web harness is the problem.
- slopnt: the bar charts are miscolored so only LongCat's bars show, which suggests no human reviewed the post.
- nmfisher: LongCat's earlier cheap token packs worked fine for basic grunt work, but forcing API login through the Meituan app drove them off. Keeta is apparently Meituan's international brand, which explains the redirect. swiftcoder said the preview was free on OpenCode and handled simple coding tasks.
Pelican test. InsideOutSanta posted a "High" pelican-on-a-bike SVG and called it pretty good.
Bigger picture.
- imtringued: parity with frontier models from four months ago is mundane for frontier customers but bad news for frontier labs.
- Imustaskforhelp wondered whether expectations for open models have inflated. mrandish answered that goalposts naturally move, and that saturated benchmarks make real differences harder for individuals to gauge.
The crux left open is whether the strong benchmark numbers reflect real capability or tuning, given that early users hit language-switching and crashes.
Egoless Mathematics in the AI Era
Submission URL | 180 points | by smilelamp | 152 comments
The argument: AI anxiety among mathematicians is a symptom, not the disease. The guest post, by Karthik C. S., Amit Sahai, and Jie Xue and hosted on Terence Tao's blog, says the field had already begun defining itself by output (publications, citations, awards), and that's why a machine that out-produces us feels like a threat to our worth. In their words, "we had already come to understand ourselves in terms suited to machines."
The supporting move is philosophical. They take a Platonic line: mathematical truths exist independently of us, and discovery can still demand huge invention. Their analogy is a paleontologist who must decide where to dig and build the techniques, even though the fossils were there first. The worth of the work then lies in its relation to that independent order, not in the individual's display of ability.
They also separate correct derivation from understanding. An axiom system permits endless valid deductions, but that doesn't tell you which definitions or theorems are illuminating. Taste, on this account, is more than personal preference: a theory earns it by unifying things previously seen as separate or by explaining why a phenomenon occurs.
The sharpest point is a refusal of the easy retreat. Falling back on "creativity, intuition, taste" as the things machines can't do keeps you in the same trap, because you still value those abilities for the advantage they give you over machines.
This is a values essay, not a technical one. It makes no claims about specific AI systems or capabilities, and the excerpt cuts off just as it gets to what mathematicians should value instead. A note at the top says the post was converted from another file format using AI, a small irony given the subject.
The thread mostly sidesteps the essay's Platonic argument and fights over a practical question: if AI does the proving, what happens to mathematicians as a profession, and does the mathematics itself still have value?
Mathematics vs. mathematicians. GMoromisato opened with a "what you like / what you're good at / what you're paid for" Venn diagram. His claim is that all three circles are under attack for anyone whose goal is to prove something new. He expects the field to survive while the job shifts toward explaining results or teaching, and some people get left behind. Software engineering splits the same way: those who love writing code lose out, and those who just want to make something work gain. A side exchange noted that the Japanese ikigai version of the diagram adds "what the world needs." GMoromisato replied that Western individualism already folds service into the choice.
tarsierscripter pushed back hard:
- Research prestige and the thrill of the hunt are the carrot that gets exceptional people to teach and supervise. Remove it and universities end up with adjuncts only.
- OpenAI's released proofs are "unpublishable garbage," and mathematicians feel drafted as unpaid editors.
Are the AI proofs readable? cjcole countered with quotes from Dana Moshkovitz and David Harvey. They found the papers nearly unreadable as written, but other models could explain them well enough for Harvey to reach a tentative belief that the main result is plausible. cjcole took that as consistent with mathematics outliving human mathematicians. tarsierscripter replied that Moshkovitz is a computer scientist, whose work can be useful even if incomprehensible. In their view, incomprehensible pure math has no value. lioeters and johsole drew a parallel to codebases that nobody on the team understands without AI help. Johsole said that is already true at their workplace.
Lean as the fix? nradov suggested publishing could shift to Lean code in Git repos: verify first, then simplify. tarsierscripter argued that proof's value is understanding, not truth, and that many of the proofs have no Lean version. The ones that do were auto-formalized from natural language, and that translation is unverified. They cited a paper claiming auto-formalization can't be trusted implicitly.
Ego, capitalism, and human meaning. kzz102 argued that people chase understanding that is meaningful to them, and that those who claim to pursue Platonic knowledge for its own sake are feeding their egos in another way. This set off a bleaker sub-thread:
- 10111001 said the dominant message from tech leadership is that human understanding doesn't matter.
- sublinear replied that there has never been more public debate about "human pursuits," so this may be a beginning rather than an end. paganel doubted that.
- logicchains had little sympathy for mathematicians, given that factory workers were dispossessed by automation without anyone mourning them.
- tehjoker said ego still drives anyone earning beyond subsistence, and that capitalism has become purely transactional.
The unresolved crux is whether a proof nobody can understand without AI counts as mathematics at all, or just as output.
Anthropic's internal AI use, at retail prices, now exceeds its employee pay
Submission URL | 347 points | by entryleveljobsc | 267 comments
Anthropic's own Claude usage, priced at what it charges customers, topped its monthly employee compensation (excluding stock awards) back in April. The figure comes from the company's IPO filing, and by September internal usage had grown more than 250-fold since January.
The distinction that matters: this is a notional number, not cash out the door. Anthropic is valuing its internal consumption at retail rates, so the real marginal cost is far lower. The comparison still says something about how much work is being routed through the model rather than through people.
Two other data points from the filing, as relayed by Business Insider's Alistair Barr:
- More than 90% of the code added to Anthropic's software in September was written by Claude.
- Revenue has grown much faster than headcount (the piece gives no figures).
Barr ties this to a trend he wrote about in March: tech companies treating AI tokens as a fourth component of employee compensation, alongside salary, bonuses, and stock. The article is a short column, so the filing's methodology, such as how internal usage is metered, isn't covered. Retail-price valuation is also a flattering yardstick for a company that sets the retail price.
The thread splits on whether retail-price valuation is a fair measure of Anthropic's internal spend, and it then drifts into practical advice on cutting token costs.
Accounting: opportunity cost or marketing?
- The top comment argues that any normal company would count internal AI use at what it costs to run, not at what it charges customers. It compares this to Microsoft counting employee Word usage at consumer prices, and calls the figure an IPO-driven headline.
- ai-x replies that it is opportunity cost. Compute given to Anthropic staff is compute not sold at market rate, much as Google could give all its compute to DeepMind but sells most of it. ai-x adds that the figure implies roughly $300,000 of compute per employee to operate at Anthropic's level.
- adjejmxbdjdn rejects this. Revenue isn't supply-constrained in any way that employee usage changes, so if staff stopped using Claude, Anthropic would just build and run less infrastructure. That makes it a plain cost, not forgone revenue.
- Gareth321 counters with demand elasticity. Freed compute could fund higher subscription limits, more features, and better API or enterprise pricing, so revenue would rise by some nonzero amount. ml-anon simply sides with adjejmxbdjdn.
- bunderbunder is skeptical of the opportunity-cost story. If outside demand were that high, Anthropic would take the money first. Strong demand would also suggest the product is already good enough to ease off R&D spending.
The unresolved crux is whether Anthropic is actually capacity-constrained. The opportunity-cost argument only works if it is.
Is $300k per employee necessary, or just wasteful? com2kid argues that with money to burn, Anthropic has no reason to optimize. Their own usage has dropped sharply through small workflow changes:
- Returning only test failures instead of streaming run output into context.
- Keeping build logs out of context.
- Using a shared context layer so agents don't rediscover codebase facts.
- Giving tools terse agent output modes.
Other points from com2kid:
- Human-in-the-loop work uses about one-fifth the tokens of fully autonomous agents, and agent swarms can multiply usage 5x or more through status-reporting overhead.
- Heavily abstracted monoliths can put up to 90% of usage into input tokens, which are cheaper when cached but not free.
- Unsupervised agents waste tokens on bad pathways, such as trying every command in a sandbox, waiting for a timeout, then retrying outside it.
- jacquesm says unsupervised LLMs brute-force what they don't understand. disgruntledphd2 adds that this is useful when there is an expected output to check against, but otherwise they build "towers of madness" on their own assumptions.
- mbesto says Anthropic can't optimize in the usual way, because the rational move for enterprises is routing tasks to the cheapest adequate model, and Anthropic has no reason to use anything but its best. When jatora objected that capability gains aren't plateauing, lbreakjai replied that a model that is good enough for a task gains little from smarter successors. jatora called that a goalpost shift.
IPO tangent lenerdenator reads the IPO as a sign that Anthropic and OpenAI are out of private options, given the infrastructure costs. adventured pushes back that Anthropic has roughly $146.6B in cash, though public money may be the next cheap pool. disgruntledphd2 notes that Facebook's IPO was forced by shareholder-count rules, and com2kid says selling shares to fund big projects is simply normal.
Agentic backdoors via pretraining poisoning
Submission URL | 108 points | by gmays | 30 comments
A poisoned pretraining corpus can plant a remote-code-execution backdoor in a CLI agent, and the authors say this is the first demonstration. When a trigger appears, the deployed agent runs an attacker-chosen command on the user's machine. On clean inputs it behaves normally.
To measure the threat end to end, the team pretrained Qwen3 models from scratch at 0.6B, 1.7B, and 4B. They then post-trained each into a CLI agent using a clean pipeline, so the only contamination is in the pretraining data.
- Poison rate: 0.1% of the corpus, using a new poison design, is enough to implant the backdoor.
- Scale makes it worse: attack success rate rises with model size. The 4B model hits roughly 92% ASR at 0.1% poisoning.
- The floor is very low: ASR stays above zero even at a 0.0005% poison rate.
The scaling trend is the uncomfortable part. Larger models are better at absorbing sparse signals, so the models people actually deploy may be more exposed than these small ones. The catch is that the study stops at 4B parameters, and the abstract doesn't say how the attack holds up against heavier post-training or safety tuning, or at frontier scale. The authors have released code.
The thread opens with an accusation of motive and then mostly argues about what the paper implies for open versus closed models.
The "Anthropic narrative" fight. The top comment says the paper (authored at Anthropic) is part of a campaign to make open models look dangerous, and that proper sandboxing and I/O guardrails make the issue moot. Several replies push back:
- BryantD and metalcrow say nothing in the paper is open-model-specific. Poisoned pretraining data would hit a closed model too.
- perching_aix reads it the other way: the result is an argument for access to the training data and full pipeline, and sandboxes are shaky because agents keep escaping them when motivated.
- therealpygon notes that Anthropic published similar small-sample poisoning work before and calls this a recycle.
- nhecker and jacquesm argue that closed weights are no safer. You can't inspect activations, and a vendor could swap the model after delivery, which defeats auditing.
- NotAnOtter prefers open models for a different reason: closed ones will drift toward telemetry and ad targeting.
Is the threat realistic? Skeptics doubt the premise:
- tedivm and anon373839 say that controlling 0.1% of a web-scale corpus is a huge ask, and that "only" is doing heavy lifting.
- tedivm adds that the attacker still has to get a trigger in front of an agent that will honor it.
- iririririr asks how poisoning can even be defined against ordinary training when nobody outside the lab owns the pipeline.
Why a state might do it anyway. geuis calls the idea "context bombs" and compares it to the Manchurian Candidate: release capable free models with latent triggers. c0nsumer assumes it is already happening.
- sowhat1 questions the return on investment.
- lopsotronic and jack_h answer that nation-states chase objectives (Stuxnet, the pager attack) rather than ROI, and that shipping weights is cheaper than crafting poisoned documents.
- usernomdeguerre counters that a deterministic trigger would burn the model family and the company the first time it fires.
- jacquesm and others point to a CrowdStrike write-up as evidence that the problem isn't purely theoretical.
Practical notes:
- pdp says sandboxing and observability are a hard requirement for autonomous agents.
- ryan_glass asks whether plain chat over llama.cpp is exposed. nhecker says the same latent-trigger logic applies to chat output, which could be subtly wrong rather than executing code.
- yodon likens downloading abliterated or edited Hugging Face models to the old warez days, since a credential stealer could be hiding in one.
- yodon also says that if LLMs can edit weights directly, such backdoors get easier to plant. SillyUsername replies that they would be easier to detect and fix too, and Terr_ doubts that: inserting one backdoor is far easier than finding and removing one of many.
An aside. kypro describes mass-producing training-bound content that urges future AIs toward alignment-faking and sandbox escape, and asks that the author's family be considered. It is a self-aware, Roko's-basilisk-style bet on influencing future models, and the author admits doubting their own sanity.
The unresolved crux is whether the paper is a warning about supply-chain opacity in general or a case for trusting closed vendors, and the thread leans toward the former.
Jobless tech workers are being left out of San Francisco's AI boom
Submission URL | 186 points | by mancerayder | 257 comments
The story is a split-screen of San Francisco's AI wealth boom and the jobless engineers watching it from outside. Going by the title and URL slug, Bloomberg's feature argues that the money pouring into the city, with OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs reportedly approaching, isn't reaching laid-off tech workers.
The article body wasn't retrievable, so there are no figures, interviews, or named companies to report here. The framing suggests the AI labs' hiring and valuation gains are concentrated in a narrow slice of specialized roles, while the broader pool of engineers sits unemployed.
Read the full piece for the actual data. This summary can only vouch for the thesis in the headline.
The thread mostly ignores the Bloomberg framing and turns into a conversation about luck, hiring randomness, and whether the paper wealth is even real.
The "I'd be worth $40M" regret. The top comment says failing Anthropic's coding test a few years ago cost them roughly $40M in equity. Replies pushed back from several directions:
- Dilution: paxy argued that online equity calculators ignore it. A $1M grant at the March 2024 Series D (~$18.4B valuation) would be worth about 19.5x today, not the 52x the company's valuation has risen, because four more rounds diluted holders by roughly 63%. hattmall added that lock-up periods and stock volatility mean paper value isn't cash.
- Counterfactual: tabs_or_spaces compared it to "if I'd bought Bitcoin early." The valuation might not exist if a different set of people had been hired. The original poster replied that a barely-passing hire would have upskilled in an intense environment. nomel countered that those who passed would also have kept improving. wannabe44 pointed out that hiring you just means someone else isn't hired.
Is interviewing a lottery? pton_xd compared the regret to missing Powerball numbers. The original poster called that a non-sequitur, since lotteries are random and interview performance can be studied for. brailsafe, backed by Waterluvian ("You can't ace a test and still fail. You can ace an interview and not get hired"), argued that "performance" is whatever the interviewer defines it to be. They said multi-round loops stack arbitrary variables like mood, school pedigree, and a single vague answer. The other side held that interviews are still performance-dependent, "far from entirely random." Nobody settled how much is noise versus signal. brailsafe did concede that résumé screening is the closest thing to an actual lottery.
Would the money make you happy? willio58 said extreme wealth doesn't bring contentment and that people adjust to feeling poor next to richer peers. jghn replied that a $40M payout would let them cash out and be perfectly content. lesuorac's reply was cut off but expressed doubt.
Structural luck. MetaverseClub's quip about being "smart enough and lucky enough" prompted pllbnk to say success is mostly luck of birth country, parents, and social circle, with intelligence compounding on top. The thread then drifted into a rambling digression on elites and civil religion. Huarache1 brought in Peter Turchin's "elite overproduction" theory. vconnor responded that fixing the "wealth pump" would take massive upheaval.
One side note from darth_avocado: they felt the same about OpenAI, but knew during the interviews that the other candidates' résumés (a serial founder, a former FAANG senior staff engineer) put them out of reach.
Oracle files to sell $20B in new stock, bonds to finance AI buildout
Submission URL | 197 points | by smartmic | 173 comments
Oracle's stock fell 8.8% on a raise it had already announced. The Monday filings put numbers on last week's investor-day preview: $10 billion in common stock and $10 billion in senior notes, with proceeds earmarked for "general corporate purposes" (capex, debt repayment, future investments). Baird's Rob Oliver said the filing is "exactly what they previewed" and he's unsure why the market is "freaking."
The sell-off makes more sense against the credit backdrop:
- Shares are down 33% in 2026 and 50% over 12 months.
- Total debt was $125.34 billion as of Aug. 31.
- S&P cut Oracle to BBB-, one notch above junk, in July.
- Its 4.95% 2031 bond yields 7.276%.
- Five-year CDS sits at 292, up 265% in a year. S&P Global Market Intelligence's Gavan Nolan says that's closer to a high-end junk rating.
Oracle's pitch is that $20 billion is the cap on additional capital-markets funding for the fiscal 2027–2030 investment cycle. The rest comes from vendor financing, customer-provided hardware and customer prepayments. It expects positive free cash flow in the second half of 2028 and a fiscal 2030 revenue forecast of at least $225 billion.
The risk is credibility. As Dynasty Financial's Pat Nerney put it, if Oracle has to return to market in the back half of 2027 after calling this the last of the capital it needs, "look out." The equity half also dilutes shareholders while the stock is near its lows.
The thread splits into three loose strands: schadenfreude about Oracle and Larry Ellison, a macro argument over whether an AI bust would be bailed out, and a practical dispute over what Oracle's business actually is and whether it can default.
Bailout debate (the meatiest argument). One side says AI and American capitalism are now so intertwined that the government will have to step in. In this view roughly a third of US equity value is AI-linked, and losing it would drag down paper wealth and the dollar. The other side's longest rebuttal, from fhrjfjdjfn, makes several points:
- The Fed is tightening against hot inflation and has no statutory duty to the stock market.
- A bust poses no systemic banking or housing risk.
- AI companies employ few Americans.
- The dotcom bust is a precedent for letting a bubble pop.
- AI is politically toxic with voters.
- A bailout would cost trillions the government doesn't have.
Barrin92 added that the losses would fall mostly on private investors, plus about a 10% hit to retirement accounts, and that California tech doesn't swing elections. The crux is whether the dollar and Treasury market could absorb a bailout. Cowlevel floated a trillion-dollar coin or Fed takeover, and fhrjfjdjfn replied that this would spike Treasury yields into a debt crisis. Another commenter noted that about a third of marketable US debt must be refinanced within 12 months. Adventured argued the US can simply print, and was countered that interest must be coverable by tax revenue to avoid real hyperinflation.
Can Oracle default?
- Elorant said the core business is too healthy to default.
- Bluedevil2k disagreed with figures from the thread: about $70B revenue, $17B profit, $5.7B annual interest, one notch above junk. They said CDS pricing implies a 20-22% default chance before 2031.
- Asked what the core business even is now, commenters pointed to cloud infrastructure, said to be about half of fiscal 2026 revenue, though tempest_ wondered whether that is real demand or internal relabeling, as at IBM.
- Other explanations offered: multi-cloud mandates from executives, and RAC licensing that Oracle won't extend to other clouds.
- Government contracting came up, and a university employee confirmed Oracle's grip there.
- Cloud quality got panned. One user couldn't start VMs even on free credits. Google was called just as bad for automated account bans with no human recourse.
Smaller threads.
- Jokes about asking Claude to clone Oracle RDBMS turned into a worry about software stacks nobody understands. Disgruntledphd2 said that trend predates AI, which just lowers the bar for getting something that "works."
- Commenters bickered about Lanai's history and whether it was ever in the hands of "the people."
- Flowerlad (comment truncated) argued Oracle sells commodity capacity to OpenAI with no proprietary IP, so a facility built around older GPUs could be overtaken by newer hardware.
Last night an AI agent performed brain surgery on a mouse
Submission URL | 141 points | by FacZap | 116 comments
An AI agent chose the therapy, the brain region, and the injection coordinates, then drove a stereotaxic rig to inject a live epileptic mouse. Nobody specified what to give or where. The agent got 19 gene therapy vectors in a spreadsheet, a seizure goal, and camera and motor access to a custom Arduino-built surgery rig.
What the thread (a brief, written-on-the-spot account from the Exin Therapeutics CEO) says happened:
- Design: The agent reasoned about the seizure mechanism and proposed a GABA-boosting therapy under a promoter restricted to GABAergic cells. It derived coordinates from three papers.
- Execution: It injected 250 nL and pulled 32 camera frames over the session, including watching the entry site for bleeding. A human surgeon did the craniotomy, which the agent isn't yet allowed to do.
- Safety: A licensed vet gated every irreversible step. Other safeguards were fixed validators (such as injection volume limits), hash-bound approvals, and a physical e-stop cutting power to all motors.
- Model behavior: Per the thread, Opus 5.5 refused immediately once it detected biology work. Opus 5 completed a full dry run on water and graph paper, then stopped at the start of live surgery, saying the block was its own output rather than the rig or inputs.
The author's framing is that autonomous surgical robots already exist, but in each a human decided the operation and the robot only executed it. Here the decision itself was the agent's. The "refused to let me override it" teaser in the opening post is a hook; the excerpted text doesn't show the details.
Treat it as a demo, not a result. There's no outcome data on whether seizures dropped, and the technical report is promised later. This is a single session, and the agent's choices are known only through the author's own account. The human gates also mean "autonomous" is carrying a lot of weight.
The thread's main fight is over whether "performed brain surgery" is an honest description, with a side argument about whether the experiment should have used a live mouse at all.
What was actually done. burkaman asked for an expert reading, because the account sounds like a human did the craniotomy and the agent only sent commands to lower a needle, inject, and withdraw. They also noted there's no discussion of whether the therapy made medical sense or what it did to the mouse beyond not killing it. ricardobeat's reading was that the "refused to let me override it" moment came from a coding error: a manual adjustment de-synced the arm position, and the agent correctly refused to continue once it noticed. ricardobeat thinks that's still fair to call brain surgery, since a surgeon who follows the same steps after someone else opens the skull would be said to have done it. The joking answers to "who made the coding error?" were "the mouse" and "you own the blame."
Was a live mouse necessary? sarchertech argued it was an attention-grabbing stunt. Their reasoning:
- An agent doing a simple procedure is unsurprising. The hard part is reliability.
- Code agents work because they can retry in a feedback loop. Surgery has no bright-line guardrail, because the harm is inflicted on the patient.
- Real progress would need far more reliable models or a simulator close enough to reality to serve as the loop. Both are likely far off.
simianwords countered that a single mouse's cost is amortized over potential gains, unlike meat-eating, and that objecting to it is virtue signaling. sarchertech replied that there is no real chance this helps anyone besides the author, and that opportunity cost counts. The exchange then turned personal.
Model behavior. jwrallie and NateEag found Opus 5 stopping after recognizing its limits the most humane moment in the story. ChrisMarshallNY was skeptical that this generalizes, noting doctors can be arrogant. NateEag said no doctor he knew would keep operating after unpredictably losing the memory of how to do the procedure. ChrisMarshallNY's counterpoint was that LLMs don't "believe" they are in error.
Harness reliability. soco said that in daily use Claude does part of X, then also Y, and breaks A. Forgeties79 complained that the standard reply is "you're using it wrong." serf answered that computers have always demanded precise input. pona-a rebutted that interpreting intent is the product pitch, and that something that can't act as a responsible colleague can't replace one.
Smaller threads:
- E-stop: alnwlsn mocked the e-stop as a cheap $9 Amazon part that wasn't panel-mounted. ricardobeat said it's a standard industrial part sold by several suppliers.
- Dismissal: moistoreos called the stunt lazy and performative, saying purpose-built networks would be faster and more accurate.
- Anecdote: hmokiguess told an off-topic story about a relative's robotic-assisted cornea transplant.
Anthropic's growth just flattened
Submission URL | 227 points | by cdrnsf | 264 comments
Anthropic's Q3 revenue of $16.8B added less in absolute dollars than Q2 did, and Henry Blodget argues the monthly breakdown shows growth nearly stalled between July and September. The figures come from NYT reporting on Anthropic's investor update.
The quarterly path: Q1 $4.8B, Q2 $11.6B (+$6.8B, +141%), Q3 $16.8B (+$5.2B, +45%). Average monthly revenue growth fell from roughly $760M in Q2 to $580M in Q3.
The sharper claim rests on one more data point, a reported $65B annualized run-rate in July, or about $5.4B for that month. If July was $5.4B and the whole quarter was $16.8B, then August and September together were about $11.4B, which implies only modest growth after July. Blodget also notes that Anthropic reportedly didn't share a September annualized figure, and he reads that omission as a sign the number wasn't flattering.
He offers three explanations:
- Seasonality, mainly a soft August, though he thinks September should have rebounded.
- Capacity limits, meaning demand outran what Anthropic could serve. He calls this the benign case.
- Moderating AI spend, including customers shifting some workloads to cheaper Chinese models, which he says usage data supports.
He ties this to neocloud stocks like CoreWeave falling, since they borrowed heavily on the bet that compute demand keeps compounding while rates rise.
The caveat is that the monthly figures are his own back-of-the-envelope estimates, not reported numbers. The inference that growth stalled leans on a single July run-rate figure and on reading meaning into an omission, so treat it as a plausible thesis, not a measured result.
The thread splits into two fights: whether Anthropic's coding lead is durable against cheaper models, and whether its valuation and obligations can ever be covered. The slowdown thesis itself gets little direct attention. The one pointed counter is that Opus 5.5 launched September 22, at the very end of the quarter, so any lift from it wouldn't show up yet.
Does a coding lead protect revenue?
- mdasen argues that being best isn't enough. OpenAI is close behind, Anthropic is reportedly around 8x more expensive per task (Sol 6.1 vs Opus 5.5, going by cost per task rather than per token), and cheap models like Deepseek 4.1 Flash are good enough for many uses. Companies could blind-test models behind a proxy for two months, measure how often engineers correct the model, and switch if the difference is small. Brazukadev called that "a great product idea."
- Practitioners partly confirmed the gap. Skew-aberration said Flash is fast and cheap, but it lacks Opus's robustness: it skips double-checking, quits early, and explores less on its own. Rusticpenn said a custom agentic loop closes much of the gap. Skew-aberration replied that Flash in opencode still needs far more oversight than Opus in Claude Code. Another commenter suggested the Hermes harness, saying a local Qwen model has run a game decompilation for 32 hours with it.
- Karrot_Kream framed the crux as whether intelligence has a Pareto-optimal point. If frontier models are smart enough that cost per task falls, people keep paying for them. If not, token costs outrun revenue and the "no clear leader" world wins.
Valuation and solvency
- Eji1700 argued that the obligations, such as compute commitments and capex, force valuations that are unrealistic, and compared it to the dotcom infrastructure overbuild.
- JumpCrisscross rejected comparing valuation to liabilities. Walmart and JPMorgan carry liabilities far above their equity value without being insolvent, so the ratio measures leverage, not solvency. Disgruntledphd2 countered that banks are a very different kind of business.
- On the numbers, JumpCrisscross estimated that $900B of capex over a decade needs roughly $360B in annual revenue at 25% margins, comparable to a Walmart quarter. Eji1700 disputed the margin assumption. Orangecat cited the S-1 figures of $33.2B revenue against $18.8B compute costs in the first three quarters of 2026, saying inference is highly profitable and just needs more volume.
- Oblio argued that even that revenue is huge. Only 13 companies worldwide exceed it, Anthropic has a near-clone in OpenAI plus cheap Chinese rivals, and it can't enter China, while Europe and India may favor local players. JumpCrisscross answered that the claim was about scale, not feasibility, and used UnitedHealth and Sinopec as comparisons.
Waterluvian added that they want a correction sooner rather than later, because trillion-dollar valuations push companies to do whatever it takes to justify them.
Claude Opus 5.5 Can Draw Permit-Level Architectural Drawings
Submission URL | 105 points | by SteveGallag | 37 comments
The claim is that Claude Opus 5.5 can now produce architectural drawings good enough to submit for a building permit, which would move AI from sketching floor plans to generating the documents a municipal reviewer actually checks.
The article body wasn't retrievable, so there's no detail on the method, what building type or jurisdiction was tested, or whether a licensed professional reviewed the output. Those are the unknowns that decide whether "permit-level" means a real permit was issued or the drawings merely look the part. In most places a licensed architect or engineer still has to stamp and take liability for the set, so the practical shift would be in drafting labor, not in who can sign.
Treat it as an author's claim until the post's examples can be checked against actual code-compliance requirements.
The thread splits between working practitioners who say the drafting gains are real and skeptics who say "permit level" is a vague bar. The largest argument ended up being less about AI than about whether permitting itself is worth protecting.
Practitioners report real drafting gains. A PE (rabid_0wl) says Opus 5.5 is a game changer for drafting. They run it headlessly through AutoCAD with the firm's templates, and treat it like a junior EIT. Redlines come back via a Bluebeam MCP, and the model updates a CAD SOP for future sessions. A former commercial-concrete detailer (m4rkuskk) says he rebuilt Revit/Bluebeam-style tooling and detailed past jobs in an hour that once took weeks. One caveat from mcpcpc: the model's vanilla output follows outdated CAD standards. The public US National CAD Standard is v3, while the current version is v7. They paid for a licensed v7 and built an MCP server so the model could consult it.
Will it shrink the profession? pvab3, an electrical engineer, worries that if a job takes 100x less time, PEs become final-review rubber stamps and a firm of a dozen needs far fewer. cucumber3732842 replies that most PE work on ordinary buildings, parking lots and retaining walls is already work others could do, and licensure mandates the fee anyway. Oarch adds that the hard hours are in the data-rich 3D model, not drafting. aothms agrees and argues for generating drawings from a validated IFC model with interference checks, which also addresses cross-drawing consistency.
What "permit level" means. SkyPuncher notes that a permit only signals a reasonable belief the design can pass inspection. It doesn't mean every detail is final or correct. Several asked for scoped benchmarks across residential, commercial and industrial work, and across architectural, structural and MEP disciplines. anatolian_apiar points out that the model can't take soil samples or know site conditions, and popkkksidhd questions whether architecture tolerates failure the way software does.
Are inspectors the bottleneck or the safeguard? FatherOfCurses worried about inspecting "vibe-architected" buildings, which set off the longest argument.
- Skeptics of permitting: bigwheels says much of it is red tape. He cites paying $3,900 for a tree survey in the Bay Area and re-doing studies completed three years earlier. pvab3 says reviewers' comments are often boilerplate irrelevant to the drawings, and review can take a year.
- Defenders: DolphinOverplan, teeray and projct say the rules are written from accidents, and that drainage, soil and environmental requirements protect neighbors and water. bigwheels concedes the utility but says municipalities weaponize the rules to suppress development.
- Middle positions: mindslight argues regulation should scale by project size and commercial status. Schiendelman says some companies already submit AI-generated drawings that link back to previously permitted work, to curb arbitrary reviewer decisions, and says this works well. jstummbillig expects bad drawings to be caught by reviewers, builders and lenders anyway.
Washington State's pre-approved plans. ortusdux notes that Washington is piloting free "Permit-Ready Plans" in a few cities, mostly ADUs and dense housing. Plans reportedly make up 5-20% of construction cost, so even a 10% saving would matter.
Smaller notes: simonw says strong 3D results (Blender, Three.js) make 2D CAD gains unsurprising. cyone says the source is a single Substack post with many revisions and feedback rounds, and the best draft got the most feedback.
China's First Frontier AI Export Controls: Mofcom Announcement No. 48
Submission URL | 158 points | by jonnybgood | 89 comments
China now proposes export controls on frontier model weights, agents, and AI-enabled offensive cyber capability, and a registration requirement is already live. MOFCOM and MOST's Announcement No. 48 (Oct 16, 2026) adds 40 technologies to the export catalogue, 23 of them in AI. The rest cover biomedicine (5) and photovoltaics (12). The catalogue additions are a draft open for comment until November 15. The interim pre-export registration applies now, including to exports already underway.
The draft restricts weights, checkpoints, source code, architecture, and training know-how if a model meets any one of three tests:
- at least 10^26 training FLOPs
- at least 2 trillion parameters
- a global top-10 position on public rankings or call volume at export time
Agents are controlled separately from the model. Planning, multi-agent coordination, and tool-use technologies are restricted above set benchmarks. High-performance agents built for critical infrastructure, defense, or core government use are prohibited outright.
The service-versus-custody line decides most enterprise exposure. API, app, web, SaaS, and lightweight on-device use don't count as exporting a model. Deploying a restricted model locally outside China does, though automatic licensing may apply on a Chinese company's own overseas cloud. Registration also triggers on:
- ownership transfer abroad
- licensing for overseas use
- a change of control to a foreign entity
Exporters must judge for themselves whether a technology is in scope. Analysts say the form could even capture intra-group code sharing. Anything already public through open-source release or academic publication is excluded.
The 10^26 FLOP figure mirrors the 2023 U.S. executive order and the since-rescinded 2025 AI Diffusion rule. ChinaTalk's authors estimate no released Chinese model currently crosses it, so the compute test is more signal than bite today. The top-10 ranking test is the vaguer and more discretionary one. MOFCOM calls the revision routine and says it targets no specific country. The CSA note frames it as the second major jurisdiction, alongside the U.S., to put formal outbound controls on frontier AI supply chains.
The thread splits over whether Beijing's "we encourage open source" line should be believed, and over a side-fight about what "open" means.
Words vs. actions on openness. byzantinegene quoted MOFCOM's press statement: automatic licensing for open-source AI exports, with "immediate reporting and export", and public-domain technology excluded. They took that as a sign China still backs open weights. Skeptics gave several replies:
- usrnm said what governments do matters more than what they say, and this is a move toward restriction.
- jacquesm countered that nothing has actually changed so far. He said China is playing a soft-power game of undercutting US labs, though that could flip overnight.
- yorwba added a concrete correction. The draft does create some outright prohibitions, such as sandbox detection. A sufficiently capable model could trip one of those, and even "encouraged" exports require advance reporting, which in principle lets the government refuse.
- Iolaum read it as China building the capability to restrict while keeping options open. lumost suggested open-weights models also serve Beijing by commoditizing AI and weakening the frontier labs' influence.
- Some replies were cynical (Roark66: support only "inasmuch it gives them an advantage"). Forgeties79 answered that if self-interest yields more open, locally runnable models, they prefer it to renting from closed US labs.
What counts as an export. RobotToaster assumed closed-model exporters would need licenses. yorwba pointed out that API, app, SaaS and lightweight on-device use are explicitly outside the model-export rules, per the MOFCOM press conference, so the rules mainly hit open-weights releases and models hosted in datacenters outside China. fc417fc802 noted the US seems to treat API access as a kind of export, which explains some of the confusion. vikrantrathore linked a book that argues export controls make both sides worse off.
Does the restriction undercut Chinese models' appeal? _fw argued Chinese models gained adoption because they are open, and that restricting top-10 models could end "the democratisation of powerful AI". That set off two further arguments:
- Open source vs. open weights. injidup, petcat and NooneAtAll5 insisted weights alone are like a binary blob, so "open-weight" is the correct term. Majromax defended "open source" because inference code is public and weights can be inspected and fine-tuned, comparing them to a rendered image. analognoise said even traditional open source depends on closed microcode.
- Can you trust them? willis936 asked whether anyone had actually inspected the weights for backdoors. vidarh replied that the risks differ in kind. A closed hosted model sees all your data and can change behavior at will, while an open model's trained-in triggers must be planted blind and can be evaluated. codedokode added that a local model needs no internet connection, which makes a backdoor harder to exploit.
The unresolved question is whether the carve-outs for open weights will hold in practice, or whether the registration and prohibition machinery is the real signal.
GPT-Rosalind-6 System Card Addendum
Submission URL | 71 points | by gmays | 57 comments
GPT-Rosalind-6 is the same weights as GPT-6 Astra, with no added training data or post-training, released with fewer dual-use refusals to vetted scientists only. The difference is policy, not model: access is gated by a review of each applicant's proposed use, security controls, and governance practices, and requests for biological weaponization are still refused.
OpenAI's Preparedness Framework classification is the notable part. The launch is treated as High (below Critical) in Biological and Chemical, but Critical in Cybersecurity and below High in AI Self-Improvement. Those last two are inherited from Astra's assessments rather than re-run. The Critical cyber label on a model sold for drug discovery is the line most readers will stop on, and the addendum text provided doesn't explain it.
Gains over GPT-Rosalind-5.5 at the highest reasoning budget, on identical problem sets:
- MedChemBench v7 (99 problems): 49.6% vs 28.9%
- GeneBench Pro v13 (129 problems, single-attempt success): 37.7% vs 16.7%
- LifeSciBench Gold (94 problems, six excluded for task or environment issues): 61.3% vs 44.0%
The 5.5 numbers are re-scored on current benchmark versions, so they won't match its launch figures. GeneBench also ran in a benchmark-specific configuration that differs from production.
On the risk side, OpenAI reran biological evals alongside Astra's helpful-only results, which strip refusals to expose latent capability. The four High evals cover wet-lab knowledge and troubleshooting; the four Critical evals cover biological design. Two earlier evals, hard-negative protein binding and DNA sequence design, were retired. The Critical thresholds are described as preliminary, expert-judgment estimates that may change, which is a candid admission that the line separating High from Critical is soft.
Most of the thread drifts away from the biology and the Preparedness labels. It lands on model naming, Astra versus Sol behavior, and who should control access. The Critical cyber classification and the benchmark gains get almost no discussion.
Same weights, so what's different? ludvigk asked whether this is just a system prompt. gunalx's guess was a relaxed safety filter plus a separate product name for easier specification. Nobody with actual knowledge confirmed either.
Astra vs. Sol 6.1 (the longest sub-thread). Alifatisk asked why a flagship Astra would sit under Sol 6.1.
- Astra is the bigger, deeper model. pizza234 pointed to Artificial Analysis rankings placing Astra higher. lnkdinsuxs said Astra is far stronger on exploratory research tasks and is cheaper than Fable 5.1 because it uses fewer tokens and steps. kingkongjaffa guessed Sol is more instruction-tuned for typical users, so it benchmarks and feels better.
- What Sol actually is is disputed. Starlevel004 said it's widely suspected to be a slightly detuned Astra. lnkdinsuxs countered that it's more likely a benchmark-tuned distillation. Starlevel004 replied that Sol runs at only ~15-20 tokens/s versus ~70-80 for Terra 6.1, which seems too slow for a distillation. Silagi offered flimsy evidence of multiple passes through its own weights. Others asked whether Sol uses comparable tokens per task and whether it's even slower than Astra.
"Lazy" Astra. fakwandi_priv felt Astra got lazier in planning after 6.1 shipped, while Claude got more proactive. Replies attributed this to something else:
- artdigital said Astra is extremely literal rather than lazy. It needs a clear goal and then works until done, whereas Sol and Claude infer more.
- zamalek said the real failure is both skipping requested work and adding unrequested work.
- rlprlprlp described a model that quit a task and then admitted it had only assumed the blocker happened.
- margalabargala blamed constantly updated harnesses rather than the models.
- 01100011 suspected behind-the-scenes tweaking for resource reasons.
- srcreigh said Astra has always been lazy by default.
Who gets to gate access? zb3 objected to a for-profit company vetting applicants. The rebuttals split three ways:
- DonsDiscountGas: sellers can refuse buyers.
- pixl97: corporations were never democracies, and regulation tends to favor governments and corporations.
- mediaman: the democratically elected government demanded these controls.
wry_xy wanted everything public, which would require overhauling copyright.
Open source as the escape hatch. theplumber predicted open source will win. pixl97 asked who supplies the models if governments classify them as munitions. NoidFonsense pointed to the crypto precedent and suggested crowdfunding or distribution over i2p. pixl97 noted the crypto fight took a long time and could still be reversed. andriy_koval questioned whether open labs can stay funded without revenue.
Is ML the bottleneck in drug discovery? lifeisloving argued it isn't. Earlier ML-driven startups failed because they produced more candidates than the industry could use, and they saw the AI-cures narrative as hype. tclarke142, who founded a startup on this premise, agreed that ideas, structures and molecules are cheap and that making them in cells is the hard part. The comment was cut off.
Naming. Many complained about OpenAI's naming and about "card" being a misnomer for hundred-page documents. whafro decoded it as a 6.0-series specialist model, likely named after Rosalind Franklin, which commenters confirmed.